And a handful of Republican incumbents holding districts Biden carried in 2020 now look much more vulnerable, raising the possibility that Democrats can go on offense.ĭemocratic operatives are most hopeful about flipping the Michigan district where GOP Rep. Their improved standing has shifted the House battlefield in two ways: A collection of Democratic districts Biden carried by more than 10 points in 2020 look far safer than they did two months ago, when private polling from both parties showed a slew of deep-blue districts could be in play. Where the map is looking better for Democrats
That’s helped Democrats close a once-yawning enthusiasm gap and chip off more independent voters, according to recent public polling. Wade and animate a previously flagging Democratic base, but former President Donald Trump has crept back into the national news cycle amid various investigations - all coinciding with a surprisingly productive summer for Democrats in Congress. Not only did the Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.), though he predicted that “inevitability for Republicans is gone.”Įven that scenario reflects a massive shift in the political environment - and in Democrats’ expectations - since just a few weeks ago. “Those campaigns are going to be tough and difficult,” said Rep. Those include a rural Wisconsin district and a seat in Michigan where Republicans nominated Army veteran John James, who has high name ID and a large donor pool from two past statewide runs. About half of the Trump-Democratic seats are open and even Democrats acknowledge they will likely not be able to hold onto some of them. Tom O’Halleran’s (D-Ariz.) seat was transformed into a district that Trump would have won by 8 points. Matt Cartwright (D-Pa.) and Jared Golden (D-Maine), they view other districts as easier lifts. While GOP operatives acknowledge some incumbents will be tougher to oust, such as Rep. Sarah Ferris and Heather Caygle and Ally MutnickĪfter subtracting the seats Republicans look set to gain almost automatically after redistricting, Democrats face another hurdle: defending roughly a dozen Trump-won seats that Democratic members currently hold. Any path for a Democratic majority would mean erasing those gains by flipping GOP-held seats.ĭemocrats, meanwhile, were blocked by courts from enacting several potential gerrymanders in blue states, most notably in New York - though they did gain a few new deep blue seats as well. In Florida alone, Republicans are likely walking away with four new districts. They added deep red seats around Nashville, Atlanta and Houston and in eastern Montana. While redistricting didn’t tilt as heavily to Republicans as some expected, the GOP emerged from the process with a healthy cushion of new GOP districts.
The drive to hold the majority has been hampered by an historic number of Democratic retirements, setbacks in redistricting and the fact that several Democratic incumbents are running in Trump-leaning territory. “And I think if they’re honest, they would say the same thing.” Redistricting, retirements and red-leaning seats power GOPĭespite the undeniable shift in momentum toward Democrats, some Democrats say privately that a good night for their party would be limiting the GOP to single-digit gains. “I always ask myself every morning, would I rather be us than them? And I’d rather be us,” Cole said. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), a former House GOP campaign chief, who pegged his party’s gains around 20 to 25 seats, rather than the 60 that his party’s leader once predicted at the height of Democrats’ struggles. No question that the president’s numbers, while bad, are better,” said Rep. “I think we probably had a little bit of irrational exuberance during the course of the summer. And while Democrats may be poised to mitigate some losses, Republicans say there’s still little chance the party’s summertime surge can overcome the stacked map. In all, Republicans need to net only five seats to win the gavel. And historical precedence is not in their favor.
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Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her caucus are also staring down a coming wave of outside spending, which could swamp them in TV ads in the critical final weeks of the midterms. Still, House Democrats face this sobering fact: Republicans may not need to flip any districts that Biden carried in 2020 to reclaim the majority.
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